Fair odds accurately reflect how likely a bet is to win.
All right, so let’s turn our attention to the lines on Team B: -130, -138, -143, -145 and -147. This time, we observe a certain gap between the best line (-130) and the second-best line (-138). We should investigate further to verify if betting Team B at -130 is a smart idea or not.
Instead of calculating the probability of an outcome based on on-the-field data, market-based models assume that some odds — and some bets wagered on those odds — are sharper than others. Take Pinnacle for example. Pinnacle is a high-limit offshore sportsbook. If the house makes a mistake there, it stands to lose more money than a public book.
If Pinnacle lists a bet for -150 but FanDuel Sportsbook, which is considered a public book, lists the same bet at +150, you probably want to have action on that line. However, understanding which books are sharper than others (and knowing at what point your edge overcomes the hold that each book is taking out) can be difficult. Fortunately, That’s why does the hard work for you. Let’s take a quick look at an example wager and how our product team describes each of the key terms.
One way to identify value betting opportunities is through .
As a value bettor, we can take advantage of the sharp bookmakers’ hard work in setting excellent odds. Because we know that the sharp bookmakers are so accurate, we use their odds to work out the ‘true’ probability of an outcome.
Bet Size: The recommended bet size as a percentage of your bankroll. This metric is based on a fractional approach that leads to a reasonable balance of minimizing risk of ruin while maximizing potential reward.
So how do you identify +EV bets? Firstly, you need some method for identifying the probability that a given wager will win. There are two main methods for calculating this probability: projections-based modeling or market-based modeling. You’re probably familiar with projections-based modeling if you’ve ever seen ESPN’s win probability estimates or fantasy football projections, but market-based modeling is a bit trickier to understand.
The unfortunate part of sports betting is that when a sportsbook deems a bet a 50/50 bet, the odds will be priced at -110 on each side. This is the that sportsbooks charge. So, using a coin flip example, both sides would be priced at -110 odds, which has an implied probability of 52.38% each for heads and tails.
The Discipline of Value Betting: Patience Pays
Whether it is a value bet does come down to your own individual judgement, but if you believe you have the statistical data or outside-of-the-box thinking that otherwise suggests that the bet has a higher probability of landing than the bookmaker, you should come up trumps.
The Psychology of Value Betting: Why It Works
Fractional odds represent the potential profit in relation to the bet. Fractional odds are shown as a fraction, i.e., 3/1 or 5/2. To calculate the odds, the formula is Denominator / (Denominator + Numerator). Example: 2 / (2 + 5) = 0.285 (or 28.5 %).
As you can see, bet365 stands out as the clear winner.
In the example above, it was pretty obvious that the -140 line on Team B was not a bargain, while the +145 odds on Team A was indeed a steal. Is there a pragmatic way of determining whether we have a value bet or not in less obvious cases? Here are detailed instructions that explain how to find +EV plays by looking at lines posted by several bookies.
Common Misconceptions About Value Betting
As a sports bettor it is important to determine what the expected value of a bet is, because that is the difference between profiting over time betting on sports or losing money doing so.
Wrapping Up: The Treasure Hunt of Value Betting
Simon has helped thousands of members profit from Matched Betting using both his passion for writing and desire to understand how things work. He has used his mathematical and analytical skills to create several guides, calculators, betting and casino tools to make the process of Matched Betting easier for newcomers and experienced members alike.
Once a value betting opportunity is identified, determine:
The term “thin value” is used quite a lot when discussing tricky decisions on the river in . The ability to get thin value from marginal hands is often the difference between good players and great players, so it’s worth taking the time to learn about it.